Sentiment from across the Termgrid community of private equity sponsors, lenders and advisors on the themes shaping private markets into the second half of 2026.
Market Outlook
Fundraising & Liquidity
Mid-Market Focus
Technology in Private Capital
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With 30k+ deal participants across 1,600+ institutions using the Termgrid platform to run or participate in financing processes, Termgrid sits at the centre of the private capital community. This edition captured sentiment across four themes.
1
Market Outlook
General sentiment on private markets and the direction of spreads across sponsors, lenders and advisors.
2
Fundraising and Liquidity Outlook
How respondents view the fundraising environment over the next 12 months and where liquidity is opening up.
3
Mid-Market Focus
How sentiment diverges across the upper and lower mid-market, and where participants feel most insulated.
4
Technology in Private Capital
Where respondents report technology is driving efficiency across the end-to-end deal process.
Methodology
Who we heard from
A geographically diverse base of private capital professionals, weighted toward the Americas and EMEA and spanning the full range of firm sizes.
What size firm do you typically work with?
39.5% >$100m EBITDA
40.4% <$50m EBITDA
20.2% $50–100m EBITDA
Where are you based?
55.3% Americas
41.2% EMEA
3.5% APAC
The survey achieved a robust overall sample size, providing a strong basis for analysis and interpretation of the findings. While some individual sub-groups and cross-tabulations contain smaller numbers of respondents, the patterns observed are generally consistent with the broader dataset and should be viewed as directionally correct.
Methodology
Respondent profile
Responses span the full private capital ecosystem — sponsors, bank lenders, credit funds, advisors and pension funds. Fund-size responses are drawn specifically from the sponsor and credit fund segments, as indicated by the connector below.
What type of firm do you work for?
33.33% Sponsor / PE Firm
32.46% Bank Lender
28.95% Credit Fund
3.51% Debt Advisor
1.75% Pension Fund
What is the size of your fund?
33.80% > $10bn
21.13% > $2bn & < $5bn
19.72% > $5bn & < $10bn
12.68% > $500m & < $2bn
9.86% < $500m
2.82% Evergreen
Responses reflect private equity and private credit funds only
Theme 01
Market Outlook
Respondents were asked how they view private markets and the direction of spreads over the coming months. Sentiment has softened from a year ago without tipping into outright pessimism.
General outlook for private markets for the remainder of 2026
NegativeNeutralPositive
Positive outlook, by region
H2 25FY 25H2 26
Positive sentiment persists, but caution is growing — more than half of respondents remain neutral on the outlook for H2 2026, and beneath the overall decline in positivity sits a widening gap between EMEA and the Americas.
Where do you expect spreads to be six months from now?
TighterFlatWiderUnsure
Beneath the headline consensus, meaningful differences emerge by firm type: credit funds take a more cautious view on spread compression than banks and sponsors.
Theme 02
Fundraising and Liquidity Outlook
The fundraising environment and the tools managers expect to use to generate liquidity as traditional exit markets remain subdued.
How do you see the fundraising environment over the next 12 months?
ChallengingNo changeImproved
Liquidity / fund financing solutions expected to be used more
Respondents could select up to three options.
The improvement in fundraising sentiment seen at the end of last year has lost momentum. The challenging outlook is a broad consensus — sponsors (70%) and credit funds (69%), and across regions (68% Americas, 66% EMEA).
Respondents describing liquidity pressure as “significant”
Pressure to return capital is most acute among sponsors, with more than 60% describing it as significant, versus fewer than half of credit funds — underscoring the importance of realizations and distributions for private equity managers. Continuation vehicles are expected to see the greatest increase in use as LPs accept that realizing full value may require longer holding periods.
Theme 03
Mid-Market Focus
How sentiment and strategy diverge across the upper and lower mid-market. The lower mid-market remains relatively insulated — but faces its own fundraising headwinds.
General outlook for private markets, by firm size
Above $50m EBITDALess than $50m EBITDA
Strategies mid-market firms are using to stay competitive
Above $50m EBITDALess than $50m EBITDA
Respondents could select up to three options.
Investors, lenders and advisors working with lower mid-market firms are consistently more buoyant than the wider respondent base. Fundraising, however, remains hardest here — 72% of respondents managing funds below $50m expect it to stay challenging, versus 67% overall. Larger firms differentiate through liquidity solutions and flexible terms, while sub-$50m managers lean on co-investment and specialisation to attract LP capital.
Theme 04
Technology in Private Capital
Where respondents are deploying technology and AI across the deal process — and what is still holding broader adoption back.
How is AI currently used in deal-related workflows?
Biggest barrier to broader AI adoption
AI adoption is becoming mainstream, but firms sit at very different stages of maturity — most use it to support individual transactions or workflows, and only a minority have embedded it into broader knowledge management. The barriers are now operational rather than cultural: accuracy, integration and data security lead. Respondents point to workflow automation and improved deal sourcing as the operational changes that would most increase their team’s capacity.
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Termgrid is the market-leading, end-to-end software platform purpose-built for private capital markets — trusted by over 1,600 institutions and 30,000 users to run and participate in financing processes.
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